基于KAYA模型的黑龙江国有森工林区碳排放及其驱动因素实证研究  

Empirical Analysis of the Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Driving Factors in Heilongjiang State-Owned Forest Industry Region Based on KAYA Model

作　　者：王兆君[1] 李婷婷[2] 

机构地区：[1]青岛科技大学农林经济研究中心,青岛266061 [2]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2012年第4期290-294,347,共6页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家林业局软科学项目(2011-R04);青岛市双百课题(2011-B-07)

摘　　要：本研究运用KAYA模型,选取2001～2010年的数据,对黑龙江国有森工林区二氧化碳排放量及其驱动因素进行了分析。研究表明:10年来黑龙江国有森工林区碳排放总量持续增加;人口数量、经济发展、单位能耗碳排放三个因素对黑龙江国有森工林区碳排放量基本为正向影响,单位GDP能源强度则主要为负向影响;经济发展和单位GDP能源强度是影响黑龙江国有森工林区碳排放的主要因素,而人口数量和单位能耗碳排放对碳排放影响较低。基于上述实证分析,本研究提出环境政策调控、节能减排、提高能源效率等建议,以减少林区碳排放和促进低碳经济发展.。This paper uses KAYA model to analyze the carbon dioxide emissions and driving factors influencing the carbon emissions from 2001 to 2010 in Heilongjiang state-owned forest industry region.It shows that carbon dioxide emissions of Heilongjiang state-owned forest industry region appeared a rising trend in the 10 years.Population,economic development and unit energy carbon emissions produce the basic positive influence on carbon emissions,while unit GDP energy intensity produce the basic negative influence on it.Economic development and unit GDP energy intensity are the main factors of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang state-owned forest industry region,while population and unit energy carbon emissions have a lower impact to carbon emissions.Based on the empirical analysis,the paper put forward some suggestions such as environmental policy control,energy conservation and emission reduction,improvement of energy efficiency and et.to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions and promote the development of the low-carbon economy in Heilongjiang state-owned forest industry region.

关 键 词：KAYA 模型 碳排放 驱动因素 低碳经济 

分 类 号：F326.24[经济管理—产业经济]