近30年河南省农作物播种面积的时序特征及趋势预测  

Sequential Characters and Trend Prediction in Sown Area of Crops from 1978 to 2008 in Henan Province

作　　者：张志国[1] 杨贵玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]商丘师范学院环境与规划系,河南商丘476000

出　　处：《贵州农业科学》2012年第10期218-221,共4页Guizhou Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河南省政府决策研究招标项目(2011B874);河南省教育厅自然科学研究项目(2011B210029)

摘　　要：为了合理利用耕地资源,为河南省农业发展规划提供理论依据,进而促进河南省农业的可持续发展,根据河南省1978—2008年的统计资料研究了30a来河南省农作物播种面积的变化特征,利用指数平滑法预测了2009—2020年河南省农作物的播种面积。结果表明:1978年以来,河南省农作物播种面积变化可划分为4个阶段,总体呈小幅增长的趋势;夏粮播种面积总体增加,而秋粮播种面积正相反,夏粮播种面积超过了秋粮播种面积;2009—2020年,河南省农作物播种面积仍将小幅增加。由于河南省耕地有限,依靠增加农作物播种面积的方法增产比较困难,建议采取多种措施提高耕地单产,保证河南省粮食安全。In order to rationally use arable land resources,provide the theoretical basis for agricultural development plan and promote sustainable development of agriculture in Henan,the change characters of crop sown area were studied and the crop sown area during 2009-2020 was predicted by means of exponential smoothing method according to the statistical data of Henan Province during 1978-2008.The results showed that the change of sown area could be divided into four stages since 1978 and had a slightly increasing trend in general.The area of summer grains increased while that of autumn grains decreased.The area of summer grains was beyond that of autumn.The sown area would increase from 2009 to 2020.In allusion to the limited arable land,the government should not only increase the per unit yield,but also ensure food security because of existent difficulties of increasing sown area of crops.

关 键 词：播种面积 时序特征 指数平滑法 趋势预测 农作物 河南 

分 类 号：S-6[农业科学]