能源消费总量控制对我国经济的影响研究  

Research on the Economy-Wide Impact of Controlling the Amount of Energy Consumption

作　　者：金艳鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京100052

出　　处：《生态经济》2012年第12期45-51,共7页Ecological Economy

摘　　要：基于2007年全国社会核算矩阵,利用数量乘数模型与价格乘数模型分析了能源消费总量控制可能带来的能效改进、能源价格调整、限制能源供给等对生产部门以及居民收入的影响。研究结果表明:相比煤炭与成品油,电价调整对部门的生产成本和居民消费价格影响最大;各类能源品种的效率改进将不同程度地导致全社会能源需求增加,引起能源效率回弹效应;限制能源供给量将直接或间接导致上下游部门产出量减少,阻碍经济增长,降低居民收入。Based on the 2007 Social Accounting Matrix, we use multiplier model and price multiplier model to analyze the economy impact about potential energy efficiency improvements, limiting production capacity, and energy price adjustment when the total energy consumption is controlled. The results show that compared to coal and refined oil, electricity price adjustment has the greatest impact on the sectors＇ production costs and consumer prices. Energy efficiency improvements will lead to increase energy needs to varying degrees, and cause the rebound effect of energy efficiency. Limiting the energy supply directly or indirectly will lead to decrease the output of upstream and downstream industry, thereby undermine economic growth and reduce household＇s income.

关 键 词：能源消费总量 社会核算矩阵 能源效率 能源价格 限制产能 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F222.33