2012年中国宏观经济形势分析  

Analysis of China’s Macro-Economic Situation in 2012

作　　者：李雪松[1] 张涛[1] 娄峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2012年第9期10-16,共7页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010):"十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究;首席专家:高铁梅

摘　　要：受欧债危机与世界经济增速放缓影响,2012年我国出口增速大幅回落,国内经济发展面临的困难增多。中央坚持稳中求进的总基调,积极应对,主动调整,把稳增长放在更加重要的位置,加大了预调和微调的力度,着力扩大内需,稳定外需,经济运行初步显现了触底企稳的迹象。当前我国宏观经济运行中突出的问题是,经济增长仍处于低位运行,尽管在投资等领域出现了一些触底企稳的积极因素,但基础还不牢固,外需的不确定性仍然很大,经济下行压力仍然较大,产能过剩问题突出,企业经济效益明显下降。在国际经济形势尚不明朗,仍存在下行的风险。当前,处理好稳增长、调结构、抓改革的关键,是把稳增长放在更加重要的位置上。继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。在防止过剩产能进一步扩大的前提下,把稳定投资增长作为短期稳定经济增长,防止经济增速进一步下滑的最有效、最直接的措施。2013年应加大积极财政政策的实施力度,适当扩大赤字规模,继续把结构性减税作为实施积极财政政策的重心,进一步加大结构性减税的力度,扩大"营改增"的实施地区和实施范围,适当降低增值税的标准税率,使结构性减税在稳增长、调结构中发挥更积极的效应。此外,应积极推动技术创新与制度创新,提高全要素生产率和长期增长潜力。Due to the Europe crisis and decreased growth of world economy, the increasing rate of China＇s export deceased sharply and the domestic economic development is faced with more troubles in 2012. The central government insisted on the keynote of ＂progressing in stable pace＂ and strengthened the pro and micro regulating by expanding domestic demand and stabilizing external demand in a proactive way. Recently, China＇s economic operation has shown some signs of rebounding slightly after hitting bottom. At present, following problems are still prominent in China： economic growth is still at a low run; investment recovery is not confirmed while uncertainties remained on the international demand. Besides, many domestic enterprises got low profits because of over capacity so that pressure upon china＇s economic development is still significant. With the uncertain international economic situation and the downside risks, China should put stabilized growth at a more important position and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. And meanwhile, stabilized investment growth can be taken as the most effective and direct measure to sustain the economic growth in short term and prevent economic development from further slide under the premise of no further expansion of excess productivity capacity. In 2013, government should consolidate the proactive finance policy, expand financial deficit appropriately and continue to strengthen the structural tax reduction as the center of proactive fiscal policy. The policy of change sales taxes into value added taxes should be implemented in more regions and sectors while the standard rate of value-added tax should be reduced so that the structural tax reduction policy can play a more active role in stable growth and structure adjustment. In addition, the technology and system innovation should be more actively promoted to improve total factor productivity and long-term growth potential.

关 键 词：经济形势 投资宏观调控 结构性减税 潜在经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]