2012年经济景气形势分析  

Analysis and Forecasting of China’s Economic Situations in 2012

作　　者：陈磊[1,2] 桑红静[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2012年第9期17-23,共7页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173029):基于非参数方法和非线性模型的经济景气和通货膨胀监测预警研究;负责人:陈磊;教育部社科规划基金项目(10YJA790021):经济景气监测预警方法及应用研究;负责人:陈磊;国家社科基金重大项目(10zd&010):"十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究;首席专家:高铁梅;辽宁省高等学校创新团队项目(WT2010013):经济周期波动分析与预测方法;负责人:陈磊

摘　　要：在短期周期性因素和长期趋势性因素的共同影响下,本轮经济周期出现超预期收缩。但月度景气指数已经在6月左右触底企稳,始于2009年2月的此轮经济周期已经结束,经济景气将在"偏冷"区间内稳中趋升。季度GDP增速的下降局面也有望在2012年三季度停止。预测2012年GDP增长7.7%,物价的下降阶段可能持续到2012年底,预计全年CPI上涨率为2.6%左右,达到预期的调控目标。Influenced by the short-time cycle factors and long-time trend factors, the latest economic slowdown is beyond expectations. However, the monthly coincident CI was bottom off around this June and the economic cycle which started from February 2009 has come to an end. The economic climate is promising to increase slightly during the ＂cold＂ economic climate. The downturn of quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to come to an end in the third quarter of 2012. The growth rate of China＇s GDP in 2012 is expected to be around 7.7%. CPI＇s downturn is supposed to continue until the end of 2012, with an annual inflation rate to be at about 2.6%, which is expected to meet the target of macroeconomic regulation.

关 键 词：经济周期 经济形势 景气分析 预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]