本轮物价波动特征与走势分析  

Analysis and Forecasting of the Inflation Cycle

作　　者：范剑平[1] 陈磊[2,3] 张同斌[2,3] 刘玉红[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025 [3]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2012年第9期24-30,共7页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(10zd&010):"十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究;首席专家:高铁梅;国家自然科学基金项目(71173029):基于非参数方法和非线性模型的经济景气和通货膨胀监测预警研究;负责人:陈磊;教育部社科规划基金项目(10YJA790021):经济景气监测预警方法及应用研究;负责人:陈磊;辽宁省高等学校创新团队项目(WT2010013):经济周期波动分析与预测方法;负责人:陈磊

摘　　要：本文采用景气指数等方法分析了物价的周期波动特征,并进行了物价走势的预测。结论认为,本轮物价波动中,PPI的波动幅度大于CPI,食品价格回落和输入型通胀压力逐渐减小等因素对CPI下行贡献度较高。本轮物价周期的下降阶段可能持续到2012年四季度,预计2012年CPI上涨率为2.6%左右,处于适度增长区间。政府应重点从原材料和农产品等供给面防范物价反弹。Based on the methods including climate index, this study analyzed the price cycle movement characteristics and forecasted the price trend. The results showed that the fluctuation amplitude of PPI was greater than that of CPI in the current cycle of price fluctuation. Many factors including the falling food price and the decreasing imported inflation pressure contributed to the decline of CPI remarkably. The decline phase of the current round of price cycle may continue until the last quarter of 2012 or even later. The CPI growth rates may be 2.6% in 2012 and will be within the moderate growth interval. And the government should focus on the supply sides, for instance, raw materials and agricultural products, to prevent price from rebounding.

关 键 词：物价波动 景气分析 通货膨胀 预测 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]