2011～2012年我国房地产市场的运行态势与政策分析  

Analysis of Operational Situation and Relevant Policies on Real Estate Market in China during 2011-2012

作　　者：梁云芳[1,2] 宫健[1] 张同斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2012年第9期70-77,共8页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：全国博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201005):我国房地产波动特征及其对宏观经济稳定的动态影响;负责人:梁云芳;霍英东教育基金会项目(131086):我国通货膨胀与资产价格变动关系的动态计量分析;负责人:梁云芳;教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-1009):中国房地产业结构变化和宏观调控的效应研究--基于动态可计算一般均衡模型;负责人:梁云芳;国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010):"十二五"时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究;首席专家:高铁梅

摘　　要：本文采用景气指数等方法分析了2011～2012年我国房地产市场的运行态势,结论认为,自2011年4月开始,房地产景气开始回落。住房价格的快速上涨得到有效控制后出现反弹迹象,房地产市场的需求与供给不平衡现象逐步缓解,2012年底之前我国房地产投资仍会维持下降态势,房地产市场运行持续在低位徘徊。目前,我国政府对房地产市场的调控已经取得显著成效。"限购令"与"新国八条"叠加效果明显,但也存在着保障房建设步调渐缓,房产税调控力度不足等突出问题。In this paper we analyzed the operational situation of real estate market in China by business cycle index and other indicators. The obtained results indicated that the business cycle index began to decrease since April 2011 and the real estate price gained a rapid growth after the effective containment by the government. Meanwhile, the demand-supply gap has gradually narrowed. We can also make the judgment that the investment in real estate industry will continue decreasing and a turning point will not emerge until the end of 2012. At the present time, the government has achieved the aim of regulation on the real estate market. The superposition effects of the housing purchasing limits policy and the ＂Nation Eight New Bills＂ are obvious. However, the slowdown in ensuing housing construction and the less efficient control of estate policies are becoming serious problems.

关 键 词：房地产投资 房价 政策调控 保障房 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]