非线性泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的应用  

Nonlinear Taylor rule and its application to Chinese monetary policy

作　　者：黄启才[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建社会科学院亚太经济所

出　　处：《亚太经济》2012年第6期32-36,共5页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

摘　　要：本文以通胀率作为政策开关变量,对结构转换形式的泰勒规则在我国货币政策中的应用进行实证分析。结果表明,在经济周期中非线性泰勒规则优于线性泰勒规则,而纳入货币、资产价格、汇率等因素的扩展型非线性模型又优于非线性泰勒基准模型,其中货币和汇率因素的引入对央行货币政策实施有所影响。Using structural switching regression model in which inflation rate is the policy-switching varia- ble, this paper analyzes the application of nonlinear Taylor rule in China＇s monetary policy. The empirical results show that, the nonlinear Taylor rule is better than the linear one, in characterization of the monetary policies of PBC in different stages of business cycles, and in contrast to nonlinear benchmark model, the extended nonlinear Taylor rules are improved further, which incorporate the factors of money, asset prices, exchange rate, and in which the money and exchange rate factors have significant effects on the central bank＇s monetary policy.

关 键 词：泰勒规则 结构转换模型 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]