衡山石膏矿老采空区地表沉陷的ANFIS预测  

ANFIS Prediction of the Surface Subsidence of the Old Goaf of the Gypsum Mine in Hengshan

作　　者：贺桂成[1,2] 丁德馨[2] 刘永[2] 张志军[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]南华大学核资源与核燃料工程学院,湖南衡阳421001

出　　处：《采矿与安全工程学报》2012年第6期876-881,共6页Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(10975071;51004067);教育部重点基金项目(2011-126);高校博士学科点专项基金项目(20104324120001);湖南省科技厅基金项目(2009SK3137);湖南省教育厅基金项目(10B091)

摘　　要：采用FLAC3D对已塌陷的衡山县石膏矿的地表沉陷进行了模拟,对该矿不同采场结构参数的采空区地表沉陷进行了模拟,分析了影响采空区地表沉陷的因素;建立了采空区地表沉陷预测的ANFIS模型,分析了其拟合性能和预测性能,对衡山某石膏矿的采空区地表沉陷进行了预测,同时还对其进行了实测。研究结果表明:FLAC3D对已塌陷的衡山县石膏矿地表沉陷的模拟精度达到97%以上;在矿岩力学参数不变的条件下,矿柱跨度、矿房跨度及采空区高度是影响采空区地表沉陷的关键因素;所建立的采空区地表沉陷预测的ANFIS模型的拟合精度和预测精度分别达96%和97%以上;采用该模型预测的衡山某石膏矿的采空区地表沉陷值与实测结果吻合良好;矿房跨度为10,矿柱跨度为4 m是该地区石膏矿最合理的采场结构参数。This paper firstly used FLAC^3D for simulating the surface subsidence of the old goaf of the Hengshan gypsum mine where has been collapsed. Secondly, simulating the surface subsidence of the old goafwith different structural parameters has been used and analyzed the factors which is influencing the surface subsidence. Then, the simulating results were used for establishing the ANFIS （adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system） model for predicting the surface subsidence of the old goaf and the fitting and predicting capabilities were analyzed. Finally, the ANFIS model was used for predicting the surface subsidence of the old goaf of a gypsum mine in Hengshan and the practical surface subsidence was measured. The results show that, the accuracies of the simulating results by FLAC^3D amount to 97%, and with the mechanical parameters fixed, room span, interval pillar span and stope height are the key parameters influencing the surface subsidence of the old goaf. The accuracies of the fitting and predicting results by the established ANFIS model amount to 96% and 97%, respectively, and the predicted results of the surface subsidence of the old goaf of a gypsum mine by the established ANFIS model andthe measured results are in good agreement. The interval pillar span and room span are suitable to 4 m and 10m for the mining stopes of the gypsum mine in Hengshan.

关 键 词：石膏矿 地表沉陷 采场结构参数 FLAC3D 自适应神经模糊推理系统模型 

分 类 号：TD73[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]