基于系统动力学的国家撤侨方案预测模型  

Forecasting Model of Evacuation on System Dynamics

作　　者：岳奎志[1] 史建国[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院一系,山东烟台264001

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2012年第11期355-359,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金(20080431386)

摘　　要：研究撤侨预测模型优化问题,目前对国家撤侨方案预测模型的研究不够。安全撤侨要有科学、合理、及时的撤离方案。为改善模型中复杂时变系统的预测效果,采用系统动力学方法,对国家撤侨方案预测模型进行研究。分析了A国在B国动荡时期撤出侨民的步骤,构建了影响撤离侨民的各元素因果回路图与存量流量图,建立了国家采用客车、客轮、客机等交通运输工具进行撤侨的系统动力学模型。利用Vensim软件进行仿真,并经实践证明,建立的预测模型仿真结果与2011年春季我国从利比亚撤侨过程所使用的交通运输工具在时间、数量、次数上相符,表明新建模型可为国家撤侨方案的制定提供理论依据与技术基础。To improve the simulation effect of the complicated and time-variant system, the evacuation of nation- als plan model was studied with system dynamics method when such study is limited. The article analyzed the homing national procedures by A side because of the social turbulence in B side, built the Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock and Flow Diagrams about every element of impacting evacuation of nationals, and established the system dynamics model of evacuation of nationals via bus, ship, plane by A side. The simulation result based on Vensim corresponds with the transportation time node, quantity and times used in the evacuation of Chinese nationals from Libya in the spring of 2011, which shows that this model can provide the theoretical evidence and technology for an effective na- tional evacuation plan.

关 键 词：撤侨 系统动力学 预测 模型 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学]