应急不完全信息环境下的混合多属性协同决策方法  

Hybrid Multi-Attribute and Collaborative Decision-Making Method Under an Emergency and Incomplete Information Environment

作　　者：刘明[1] 张培勇[1] 萧毅鸿[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2012年第22期100-110,共11页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(11YJCZH109);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(NUST);南京理工大学经管学院青年教师研究基金项目(AE88072;JGQN1102)

摘　　要：科学的应急救援协同决策理论方法,不但能使应急管理系统更好地发挥作用,而且能使政府及公众的应急救援行为更加规范和有序.为此,针对应急环境下决策信息不完全的背景,研究构建了一类综合集成网络层次分析法(ANP)、证据理论(D-SEvidence Theory)以及改进的理想点法(TOPSIS)的混合多属性应急协同决策方法.其中ANP用于处理应急救援方案非独立和相互联系的评价指标权重的确立,D-S Theory用于处理不完全信息条件下多个部门对应急救援候选方案的不同评价信息融合,改进的理想点法(TOPSIS)则用于最终候选应急救援方案的排序.研究结果表明,所提出的混合多属性协同决策方法不仅在理论上有所集成创新,而且在实际应用中可以有效解决应急环境下多部门或多环节协同决策问题.As a scientific emergency collaborative decision-making method not only can bring the emergency management system a well performance, but also can lead the government and the public emergency behavior more standard and orderly. In this article, an emergency and incomplete information environment is taken as the research background, and a hybrid multi-attribute and collaborative decision-making method, which is constructed by ANP, D-S Evidence Theory and TOPSIS, is proposed. Of which, ANP is used for describe the dependent relationship between the evaluation indexes and determine the weight of each index set; D-S Evidence Theory is used for multisource information fusion of the alternative emergency rescue programs under an incomplete information environment; while the improved TOPSIS is adopted to order the alternative emergency rescue programs by combine with the above two theories. Research result shows that the proposed hybrid multi-attribute decision-making method not only makes a theoretical innovation, but also can effectively solve the collaborative decision problem in an emergency practical application.

关 键 词：网络层次分析法 证据理论 理想点法 协同决策 应急 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学] C931.1