基于SD模型的小江流域协调发展模式研究  

Sustainable Development Patterns in Xiaojiang River Basin Based on System Dynamic Model

作　　者：翟羽佳[1,2] 王丽婧[2] 郑丙辉[2] 王会肖[1] 李小宝[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]中国环境科学研究院河流海岸带创新基地,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2012年第11期167-172,共6页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家水专项课题(2009ZX07528-003);国家国际科技合作计划项目(2007DFA90510)

摘　　要：三峡水库自蓄水以来水环境安全问题便受到广泛关注。选取三峡水库典型支流小江为研究对象,应用系统动力学(SD)方法和情景分析方法,构建了小江流域环境-社会-经济系统仿真模拟模型,实现了3种发展情景的模拟和分析。研究结果显示:(1)自然发展模式下流域人口、需水量、各产业GDP都实现高速增长,至2025年COD、氨氮、总氮、总磷的负荷分别达到16 796.1 t,9 578.8 t,3 461.8 t以及405.1 t;(2)经济人口调控模式下COD、氨氮负荷分别下降了7.9%和25%;(3)环境社会经济协调发展模式下实现了污染负荷的大幅度削减。结合模拟结果,提出了小江流域环境社会经济持续协调发展的相关建议。Water environmental problem of Three Gorges Reservoir（TGR）has aroused wide concern since impoundment.As a typical tributary of TGR,Xiaojiang River was selected as the study area.Using the system dynamics approach and scenario analysis,an environmental-social-economic system dynamics model was constructed and simulated under 3 scenarios.Results showed that with natural development pattern,rapid growth is found in population,water demand and GDP.Loads of COD,NH3-N,TN and TP will reach 16 796.1 t,9 578.8 t,3 461.8 t and 405.1 t respectively in 2025.Under economic-social-regulated mode,loads of COD and NH3-N will decrease by 7.9% and 25%.As for environmental-social-economic coordinated development pattern,the pollutant loads will be largely cut down.In view of the results,relevant suggestions for sustainable development in the River basin were proposed as well.

关 键 词：三峡水库 小江 系统动力学模型 情景分析 协调发展 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]