我们需要为所谓“净出口负贡献”而担忧吗  

Should We Worry about the Statement of “Negative Contribution of Net Export to GDP”

作　　者：戴翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2012年第11期106-115,共10页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究项目(10YJC790039)

摘　　要：在进出口贸易平衡发展战略下,我国贸易顺差将呈逐年收窄之势,这本来是很正常的现象。但是,理论界和实务部门一些同志认为,净出口的持续减少将意味着其对我国经济增长的贡献率为负将成常态,中国进入了所谓"净出口负贡献"的发展阶段。实际上,"净出口负贡献"的说法,不仅是对国民经济核算恒等式的误读,而且忽视了经济全球化条件下对外贸易的发展对经济增长的巨大作用,具有明显的理论上的偏差,在实践中也会带来一些认识上的误区,从而导致政策偏误,妨碍我国开放型经济的发展。Under the strategy of balanced development in China＇ s foreign trade, it is very normal for the trade surplus to decrease year by year in the near future. But some theorists and practitioners argue that the persistent decrease of trade surplus means that the contribution of China＇s net export to GDP will keep negative. In fact, the assumption of negative contribution of net export to GDP results from the misunderstanding of Macro economy identity and the neglecting of tremendous role of foreign trade in deriving economic growth under the background of economic globalization. This theory may Iead to some mistaken ideas and even wrong policy orientations, which will harm the development of China＇s open economy.

关 键 词：净出口 负贡献 经济增长 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]