二次设备量化评估中故障概率的计算方法  

Calculation of Failure Probability in Status Assessment of Secondary Equipment

作　　者：吴姜[1] 曹建东[2] 张弛[2] 胡春潮[3] 蔡泽祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广州510640 [2]广东省电力调度中心,广州510600 [3]广东电网公司电力科学研究院,广州510600

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2012年第6期78-82,共5页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：提出了一种二次设备故障概率的计算方法,在对设备状态开展量化评估的基础上,以设备等效运行时间为中间变量,将评价结果和故障统计资料相关联,通过反演计算相关的关联系数,拟合二次设备故障概率曲线。实例表明,得到的故障概率基本符合专家经验和设备性能实际情况,是估测设备在当前运行状态下发生故障可能性的有效方法,适合工程参考。为二次设备量化风险评估等工作提供了数据支持。A method for calculating the failure probability of secondary equipment was proposed. Based on the status evaluation, with the equivalent running time as the intermediate variable, it associated the results of e- valuation with failure statistics. By inversing the correlation coefficient, the failure probability curve was fit- ted. Examples show that the probability of failure consists with expertise and equipment performance. It＇s an effective method to estimate the failure possibility of devices＂ under current state and suitable for engineering reference, which gives the data support for risk assessment of secondary equipment.

关 键 词：二次设备 故障概率 状态评价 等效运行时间 关联关系 拟合 

分 类 号：U224.3[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]