考虑电价补贴政策的风电投资决策模型与分析  

Wind power investment decision-making model and policy analysis considering the electricity price subsidies of wind power

作　　者：曾鸣[1] 李晨[1] 刘超[1] 周黎莎[1] 欧阳邵杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源与电力经济研究咨询中心,北京102206

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2012年第23期17-23,86,共8页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70771039);国家电网公司科技项目(KJ-2010-26)~~

摘　　要：风电项目初始投资规模大,上网电价水平高,风电的高速发展需要政府相关财税政策的支持。首先,假设上网电价与单位容量投资成本波动服从几何布朗运动;其次,基于实物期权理论,在上网电价与单位容量投资成本不确定的情形下,考虑存在风电电价补贴,建立了风电项目投资决策模型,以确定风电项目的最优投资时机。该模型考虑了风电电价补贴水平、风电电价补贴有效期、上网电价波动率、单位容量投资成本波动率等投资决策因素。算例结果表明该模型可为风电项目投资者选择合适的投资时机提供决策参考,还可作为政策制定者制定合理的投资促进政策提供量化分析工具。Because of the large-scale initial investment and the high tariff level, rapid development of wind power requires the support of the government＇s fiscal policy. First, the fluctuation of feed-in-tariff and investment cost per unit capacity are assumed to follow geometric Brownian motion. Second, based on real option theory, considering the existence of electricity price subsidies of wind power, and in the case of the uncertainty of feed-in-tariffs and investment cost per unit capacity, a wind power project investment decision-making model is established to determine optimal investment timing. The factors including the level of electricity price subsidies, electricity price subsidy validity period, volatility of feed-in-tariffs and investment cost per unit capacity are considered in this model. The example shows that the model could provide a reference for the investors of wind power projects to choose the right investment opportunities, and besides it also could be a quantitative analysis tool for policy makers to develop a reasonable promotion policy for investment. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 70771039） and the Science and Technology Foundation of SGCC（No. K J-2010-26）.

关 键 词：电价补贴 实物期权 不确定性 风电 投资决策 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F407.61