SLEUTH模型的参数行为研究  

Study on the Parameters Behavior of the SLEUTH Model

作　　者：冯徽徽[1,2] 刘慧平[2] 周彬学[1] 毛小岗[2] 赵小锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院城市环境研究所,福建厦门361021 [2]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2012年第6期39-43,共5页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40671127);国家自然科学基金项目(40901218);国家CNGI专项(CNGI-09-01-07);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-453)

摘　　要：为探索SLEUTH模型的参数行为,利用场景分析方法,并以东莞市寮步镇为例,通过SLEUTH模型构建11个场景,预测研究区到2030年的城市扩张情况,进而研究SLEUTH模型的繁衍系数与蔓延系数对城市扩张数量及空间布局的影响。研究结果表明,繁衍系数与蔓延系数对城市扩张的推动作用存在一个最低阈值,当大于该阈值时,城市用地将不断向外扩张,并随时间推移趋于稳定,呈现较强的相关关系,相关系数高达0.9以上,从而充分体现了城市系统的突变性、自组织性与非线性等复杂性特征。研究成果可为深刻理解SLEUTH模型特征提供有利的分析工具。To explore the parameters behavior of the SLEUTH model, this paper used the scenario analysis method and took Liaobu Town of 1Dongguan City as example, then investigated the effects of the breed and spread parameters on the rate and scale of urban growth by building, testing and analyzing the 11 scenarios through the SLEUTH model. The results showed that, there was a low threshold of the two parameters on urban growth, when exceed this threshold, the urban system would he expanded, the rates and extents of urban growth would be reduced while the internal factors were strengthen, which also presented a highly correlation with the coefficients of 0. 9. These results represented fully the complex characteristics of mutagenicity, self-organization and nonlinear of urban system. The results would provide a useful analysis tool to understand the characteristic of the SLEUTH model.

关 键 词：SLEUTH模型 参数行为 场景分析 城市扩张 

分 类 号：TU981[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]