基于选择试验模型的基本农田非市场价值评估——以浙江省德清县为例  

Estimation of Non-market Value of Prime Farmland Based on Choice Experiment Model——A Case Study of Deqing County,Zhejiang Province

作　　者：谭永忠[1] 陈佳[1] 王庆日[2] 牟永铭[3] 刘怡[1] 施雅娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院土地管理系,杭州310027 [2]中国土地勘测规划院,北京100037 [3]浙江省环境监测中心,杭州310007

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2012年第11期1981-1994,共14页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业研究项目(201211048-10;200811090);国家自然科学基金项目(40971293);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(07JA790068)

摘　　要：非市场价值是基本农田价值的重要组成部分。对基本农田价值的全面认识与科学评估,有助于基本农田保护经济补偿机制的建立。针对目前中国耕地和基本农田非市场价值研究中尚未引入选择试验模型的现状,论文尝试将选择试验模型引入基本农田非市场价值评估研究,并以浙江省德清县为例展开实证分析。在问卷调查的基础上,首先分析城乡居民对于基本农田保护的认知差异;然后运用选择试验模型分析城乡居民对于基本农田非市场价值的认知偏好及其可能的异质性来源;最后评估并比较城乡居民对于基本农田非市场价值的支付意愿,得出德清县基本农田的非市场价值。研究得到如下主要结论:①城乡居民对基本农田非市场价值的认知偏好存在差异,其认知偏好受年龄、教育程度、家庭人口数、收入、行为和态度变量的影响;②城镇居民的支付意愿普遍高于农村居民,城镇居民平均年支付意愿为143.04元/户,农村居民平均年支付意愿为27.47元/户,城乡居民的收入差异显著影响其支付意愿;③Mixed Logit模型能够揭示不同个体之间存在的选择偏好的异质性及其可能来源,且模型拟合程度更高,解释力优于MNL模型,但是,在应用MNL模型和Mixed Logit模型评估属性的支付意愿时,估计结果存在差异;④计算结果表明,2009年德清县基本农田非市场价值为2.58×108元,单位面积非市场价值为1.27×104元/hm2,占基本农田总价值的54.17%。A comprehensive understanding and scientific assessment of the value of prime farmland is an important prerequisite for building the economic compensation for the protection of prime farmland.This paper proposes the initial attempt of the introduction of choice experiment model to the study of non-market value of prime farmland,and makes a case study taking Deqing County,Zhejiang Province as an example.Based on face-to-face interview,it discusses the cognitive differences of urban and rural residents for the protection of prime farmland,and analyses the cognitive preferences and its possible sources of heterogeneity of urban and rural residents for the non-market value of prime farmland by applying choice experiment model.Finally,urban and rural residents＇ willingness to pay for the non-market value of prime farmland is evaluated and compared,and the non-market value of prime farmland in Deqing County is obtained. Based on it,this paper concludes that： 1） both urban and rural residents had known the non-market value of prime farmland to some extent,and recognized the need and importance for continuing the protection of prime farmland,however,the urban residents＇ cognition of non-market value of prime farmland is more comprehensive and profound compared with that of rural residents.2） Urban and rural residents paid more attention to the social value of prime farmland,and the cognitive preferences of urban and rural residents for the non-market value of prime farmland are influenced by age,education,family size,income,behavior and attitude variables.3） Urban residents＇ willingness to pay is generally higher than rural residents＇,urban residents＇ willingness to pay per year is 143.04 yuan per household while rural residents＇ is 27.47 yuan per household,and gender,age,family size,income and attitude variables have a major impact on their willingness to pay.Besides,the income of urban and rural residents significantly affects the level of their payment.4） Mixed Logit model reveals individuals＇

关 键 词：基本农田 非市场价值 选择试验模型 MNL模型 Mixed LOGIT模型 支付意愿 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济] F062.1