气候变化及人类活动对东江流域径流影响的贡献分解研究  

Identifying the quantitative effect of climate change and human activity on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin

作　　者：林凯荣[1,2] 何艳虎[1,2] 陈晓宏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水利学报》2012年第11期1312-1321,共10页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50809078;50839005);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2010CB428405);水利部公益性行业专项(200801001);广东省自然科学基金(S2011010001549);广州市珠江科技新星专项资助(2011J2200051)

摘　　要：基于东江流域两期(1980年和2000年)土地利用现状图和主要水文气象站1956—2009年气象和径流时间序列,选择土地利用变化程度从小到大的3个子流域,建立了气候变化及人类活动对流域径流影响的贡献分解方法,运用改进的SCS月模型进行径流模拟,以揭示气候变化及人类活动对流域径流量的影响。结果表明:(1)东江流域在1980—2000年期间,土地利用发生了显著变化,具体表现在1980年和2000年的两期CN等值线的空间分布特征上;(2)SCS月模型于东江3个子流域径流模拟均能满足一定精度要求,各子流域土地利用变化越显著,则径流改变量越大;(3)相对于基准期(1970—1978年),1980—2000年各子流域径流量的改变表现为不同程度的增加或减少;不同子流域土地利用及气候变化对径流的改变作用各不相同,均分别起到增加和减少径流作用;总体而言,各子流域中气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的分量基本相当,岳城、顺天和蓝塘3个子流域土地利用变化对径流影响的贡献率分别为19.54%、24.11%和29.94%。Based on the current land use maps in two periods （1980 year and 2000 year） and hydro-meteorological data of main stations in the Dongjiang River basin during 1956-2009 years, three sub-basins which land use had changed from little to great were selected as case study, an method to identify the quantitative effect of climate change and human activity on runoff was developed. The runoff was simulated with SCS monthly model to find the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff. The results show that： （1） since 1980 to 2000 in the Dongjiang River basin, land use had been changed significantly, and it can be shown in the characteristic of the spatial distribution of the CN contour line in two periods （1980 year and 2000 year）; （2） the application of the SCS monthly model in three basins can meet the required precision, and the more significant land use change in each sub-basin, the more change on that of runoff; （3） compared to reference period （1970-1978）, the runoff decreased or increased more or less to a different extent during the period of 1980-2000. All sub-basins show a result that impacts due to climate change and human activity were half and half. As one of the factors that made the runoff change, land use change could increase the runoff to the extents of 19.54%, 24.11%, and 29.94 in Yuecheng, Sbuntian, and Lantang sub-basins respectively.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 土地利用变化 径流 东江流域 

分 类 号：P331[天文地球—水文科学]