黑龙江省能源消费碳排放量情景预测  

Scene Prediction of Energy Consumption Carbon Emission of Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：胡彩梅[1] 韦福雷[1] 王攀[1] 刘黎明[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江科技学院经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150027

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2012年第12期1083-1085,1059,共4页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目资助(编号:12524095);黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目资助(编号:11E043);黑龙江科技学院优秀青年才俊培养计划项目

摘　　要：采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会规定的碳排放计算方法,测算了黑龙江省2002—2010年的能源消费碳排放量。运用Kaya分解法,预测了黑龙江省2011—2020年在不同情境下的人均碳排放量。研究表明,2002—2010年黑龙江省能源消费碳排放量以年均8%的速度增长,人均碳排量年均增长率为8.18%。在四种经济增长情境下,黑龙江省2011—2020年人均碳排放量的年均增长率均远远低于2002—2010年,但人均碳排放量仍逐年增长,且GDP增长速度越快,人均碳排放量增长也越快。By using IPCC carbon emission calculation formula, it calculated the energy consumption carbon emission of Heilongjiang Province from 2002 to 2010. And by using Kaya formula, its scene predicted the capital carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province from 2011 to 2020. The resuits showed that energy consumption carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province were continuing to rise at an annual rate of 8 % during 2002 to 2010, the capital carbon emissions with an average annual growth rate of 8.18 %. In four economic growth scenes, the average annual growth rate of the cap- ital carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province would be much lower than that of 2002 - 2010, but the capital carbon emissions would continue to grow, and the faster growth of GDP the rapider growth of capita carbon emissions.

关 键 词：能源消费 碳排放 情景预测 

分 类 号：X830.7[环境科学与工程—环境工程]