Changes of Atmospheric Water Balance over China under the IPCC SRES A1B Scenario Based on RegCM3 Simulations  

作　　者：SUN Bo JIANG Da-Bang 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [3]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [4]Climate Change Research Centre,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2012年第6期461-467,共7页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2009CB421406);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41130103)

摘　　要：Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March-June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 （RegCM3） under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March–June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.

关 键 词：REGCM3 A1B scenario atmospheric water balance 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TP311.5[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]