中国居民消费率:数据误差与修正  

China Household's Consumption Rate: Data Error and Correction

作　　者：王松[1] 付志刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410205 [2]湖南商学院信息学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《湖南商学院学报》2012年第5期16-22,共7页Journal of Hunan Business College

摘　　要：通过考察中国居民消费率数据三个主要来源及其特征,笔者认为由于受到统计核算体系、统计口径等客观因素的影响,以上数据都存在误差,表现出不同的变化趋势,差异较大。鉴此,笔者引入研究GDP统计核算数据修正的新方法:加权法和状态空间模型,并综合两种方法构建了修正模型,对中国居民消费率数据进行修正。结果表明,修正后的数据具有误差更小、受客观因素的影响更少的特征,还显示居民消费率下降趋势并没有修正前数据所反映的那么快,由此为研究中国居民消费问题提供了更为有效的数据支撑。By examining the three main sources and characteristics of households＇ consumption rate data of China, this paper believes that, due to statistical accounting system, statistical coverage and objective factors, the data shows different trend and errors. And then this paper introduces new methods： weighted method and state-space model, which are integrated to build the correction model of households＇ consumption rate of China. The results show that the revised data has smaller error, less affected, and that the rate reduces slower than the accounting data, thus providing effective data for the study of China＇s consumption. Finally, this paper gives some suggestions.

关 键 词：居民消费率 数据修正 加权法 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]