基于面板数据的湖南省财政增收与经济增长协整分析  

Co-integration analysis on Hunan Provincial Finance Income and Economic Growth based on the Panel Data

作　　者：朱艳春[1] 李玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]湖南省财政厅,湖南长沙410015

出　　处：《湖南商学院学报》2012年第5期30-35,共6页Journal of Hunan Business College

基　　金：2012年度湖南省财政科研重点招标课题<湖南省经济增长与财政增收的数量关系研究>

摘　　要：本文通过选取湖南1994-2010年财政收入的面板数据，运用面板数据的单位根检验与协整检验，对湖南财政增收与GDP的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明湖南财政增收与GDP之间存在双向长期协整关系，即GDP是财政收入增收的源泉，财政增收增加了财政支出，反过来刺激经济增长。并且，产业结构高级化的城市财政收入对GDP的弹性大于1，即GDP的增长能带来更大幅度的财政增收。因此，需进一步加速推进新型工业化，促进产业结构优化升级，实现湖南财政增收与GDP的长期良性互动。The paper makes a positive analysis of the relation between Hunan financial income and GDP based on the finance income panel data from 1994 to 2010 through panel data unit root test and co-integration test. The results show that the Hunan financial income and GDP have a long-term two-way co-integration relation, namely GDP is the source of financial income that increase the fiscal expenditure, and which in turn stimulates economic growth. And, the elasticity of the revenue of high-leveled industrial structure agianst GDP is greater than 1, that is, GDP growth can lead to more substantial financial income. Therefore, we need to further advance the new-style industrialization, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and achieve the healthy development between Hunan financial income＇ increase and the GDP＇s growth.

关 键 词：财政增收 经济增长 面板数据 协整 产业结构 

分 类 号：F812.764[经济管理—财政学] F127.64