基于贝叶斯网络模型的导弹防御效能评估研究  

Research on Missile Defense Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Bayesian Network Model

作　　者：禹磊[1,2] 唐硕[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航天学院,西安710072 [2]航天飞行动力学重点实验室,西安710072

出　　处：《飞行器测控学报》2012年第5期89-94,共6页Journal of Spacecraft TT&C Technology

基　　金：高等学校博士点新教师基金(20116102120004)

摘　　要：效能评估涉及到评估指标的确定、评估方法的运用等诸多问题,现有的效能评估方法存在效率低下、难以解决复杂问题等诸多限制。本文在作战仿真试验的基础上,基于贝叶斯网络分析理论,进行了弹道导弹防御系统的效能评估研究。通过建立并学习贝叶斯网络评估模型,对不同方案进行了优选分析,分析了效能指标与多种因素之间的关系,计算得出响应时间、机动突防、拦截次数等对拦截结果影响较大,其余则影响较小。Effectiveness evaluation involves numerous aspects including determination of evaluation index and use of evaluation method. Current evaluation methods have many limitations, e.g. low efficiency and difficulty to solve complex problems. Based on battle simulation and experiments and Bayesian network analysis theory, effectiveness evaluation is studied for ballistic missile defense systems. Optimal schemes are selected and analyzed by building and learning Bayesian network evaluation models. The relationship between effectiveness index and various factors is an- alyzed. As shown by computation results, response time, maneuvering penetration and interception number have much greater influence on interception results than other factors.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 弹道导弹 效能评估 效能指标 

分 类 号：TJ76[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]