对21世纪的前20年中国安全环境的分析与思考  

An Analysis of and Reflection on China's Security Environment in the First 2 Decades of the Century

作　　者：程桂龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学国际问题研究所,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《江南社会学院学报》2012年第3期6-10,共5页Journal of Jiangnan Social University

摘　　要：21世纪的前10年,中国安全环境发生了重大变化。虽然没有卷入世界战争及外部入侵的危险,但卷入局部冲突的可能性加大;虽然陆地上总体比较安定,但海洋方面面临的问题增多;虽然传统安全问题方面没有多大的变化,但非传统安全问题增多。今后10年,台海问题、东海问题、南海问题、中印边界问题等将加剧中国卷入冲突的可能;中国与各大国之间战略博弈会加剧,中美的分歧与矛盾仍将是中国面临的最大安全威胁;传统安全问题基本平稳,但非传统安全问题的地位将得到提升。为此,中国需要更好地进行经济建设,提高综合国力和国防实力;加强同各大国以及周边国家地区的安全合作;增强国家的软实力及应对非传统安全问题的能力。China＇s security environment witnessed a big change in the first decade of the 21st century.There is little possibility for China to be invaded or get involved in a world war,but the possibility of its involvement in a local war has increased.China＇s land security can be guaranteed,but its marine security has been a serious problem;its conventional security remains basically unchanged,but its non-conventional security problems have increased.In the next ten years,the Taiwan Question、the East China Sea issue、South China Sea disputes、the boundary problem between China and India may make China encounter more troubles.The tension between China and the major countries in this area would intensify.In particular,the conflict between China and America would be the single most serious security threat to China.In response,China should continue to develop its economy,improve its comprehensive strength and national defense and its security cooperation with its neighboring countries and regions,and to enhance its soft power and the ability to deal with non-conventional security issues.

关 键 词：中国 安全环境 安全对策 

分 类 号：D631[政治法律—政治学]