某军区某部细菌性痢疾发病趋势的预测  

Prediction on incidence trend of dysentery in a PLA unit

作　　者：王辉[1] 杨春梅[1] 卢娟[1] 宫占威[1] 左晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军兰州军区疾病预防控制中心疾病监控科,甘肃省兰州市730020

出　　处：《职业与健康》2012年第21期2569-2571,共3页Occupation and Health

基　　金：兰州军区后勤科研计划项目(项目编号:CLZ11J05)

摘　　要：目的预测某军区某部细菌性痢疾(以下简称菌痢)的流行趋势,为制定防治对策提供参考依据。方法运用Excel软件对某部2001—2009年的菌痢发病率进行二次多项式拟合,并根据所建立的预测方程对2010年的菌痢发病进行外推预测,分析其变化趋势。结果建立的某军区某部2001—2009年的菌痢发病预测模型为:Y=0.138 9 X2-3.191 1 X+21.073,决定系数R2为0.937 8,模型拟合效果良好。结论某部近年来的菌痢发病呈逐年下降趋势,预计2010年的菌痢发病率为3.052/10万。[Objective] To predict the incidence trend of dysentery in a PLA unit,provide a scientific evidence for developing prevention and control measures.[Methods]A quadratic-multinomial fitting was conducted on the incidence of dysentery in a PLA unit from 2001 to 2009 by using Excel software,and the extrapolation forecast for incidence of dysentery in 2010 was performed based on the established equation,so as to analyze the changing trend.[Results]The prediction model of the incidence of dysentery from 2001 to 2009 was： Y=0.138 9 X2-3.191 1 X＋21.073,with the determination coefficient R2 of 0.937 8.The fitting effect was well.[Conclusion]The incidence of dysentery has declined steadily in recent years in a PLA unit,and the incidence of dysentery is predicted to be 3.052/lakh in 2010.

关 键 词：细菌性痢疾 发病率 回归法 预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]