“双赤字”与美国经济增长：理论、事实及解释  

Twin Deficits and Economic Growth of US: the Theories, facts and Explanations

作　　者：丁振辉[1] 夏园园[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2012年第12期61-71,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果,项目批准号13XNH098,项目名称“国际经济周期的协同性与非协同性--东亚的实证研究”

摘　　要：经常项目持续赤字和财政赤字高企是当前美国经济运行中的两个突出现象,但是"双赤字"并没有不利于美国经济增长,反而是美国经济增长的一股重要力量。1970-2010年间的实证检验也证实"双赤字"与美国经济增长存在某种相关关系。通过利率和汇率效应,财政赤字可能导致经常项目赤字,当存在无限供给的可贷资本时,在开放宏观经济模型内双赤字可能会成为经济增长的正面力量。这是因为美国可以通过发行国债向国外转移财政赤字负担,同时经常项目赤字改善了美国经济发展环境,其中最核心的原因则在于美元在世界经济中的特殊地位,但是滥用美元铸币税从长远来看可贷资本无限供给出现问题不利于美国经济的可持续发展。The soaring current account deficit and budget deficit were high lighted in the US and the twin deficits were observed as the driving force rather than obstacle to economic growth. An empirical analysis has confirmed the posi- tive relation between the two factors. According to open economy macroeconom- ics, when supply of loanable capital was boundless, a budget deficit could lead to a current account deficit in means of interest and exchange rate effects espe- cially for the US, because the US was able to shift its budget burden to the else of the world by issuing government debt and improve the economic condi- tions by current account deficit which attributed to the dollar＇ s core position in the world. But further speaking, it was not sustainable if the seigniorage was abused for offsetting the twin deficits gaps.

关 键 词：经常项目赤字 财政赤字 经济增长 利率和汇率效应 

分 类 号：F171.2[经济管理—世界经济]