基于时间序列的建筑工程造价预测研究  

Research on Prediction of Architectural Engineering Cost based on the Time Series Method

作　　者：胡六星[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南城建职业技术学院,湖南湘潭411101

出　　处：《太原理工大学学报》2012年第6期706-709,714,共5页Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology

基　　金：湖南省科技计划项目资助(2011SK2138)

摘　　要：以工程量清单计价模式为基础,提出时间序列预测工程造价方法。在分析介绍时间序列检验、建模和预测原理的基础上,以钢材价格为对象进行时间序列分析。提取钢材价格趋势项,对价格残差项进行时间序列建模,获得钢材价格模型。对钢材价格进行预测分析,获得了2011年第一季度钢材价格,与实际价格对比分析发现预测价格误差在5%以内,预测值可以用于建筑工程造价预测中。以工程量清单计价模式为基础的时间序列预测方法,在建筑工程造价中可以得到广泛应用。Cost plays a very important role in architectural engineering, and the methods to predict the cost rapidly and accurately are needed. On the basis of the valuation mode of quanti ties bill, this paper proposed the time series method for predicting project cost. According to the theory of test, modeling and prediction, the paper carried out time series analysis, taking steel price for example. It withdrew the steel price tendency item, then conducted modeling using the price residual item, finally established the model of steel price. In line with the model, the steel price of the first quarter in 2011 was forecasted. By comparing with the real price, it shows that the error was in 5 percent, which proves the model is correct and the time series method based on the valuation mode of quantities bill can be adopted widely to predict manufacturing cost.

关 键 词：建筑工程 工程造价 时间序列 造价预测 钢材价格 

分 类 号：TU723.3[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]