青海省1961-2006年气温时空变化特征研究  

Temporal-spatial variations of temperature during 1961-2006 in Qinghai Province

作　　者：马全[1] 张鑫[1] 廖清飞[1] 徐静[1] 姚瑶[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第11期59-65,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家"863"计划项目(14110209);"十一五"国家重大科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD11B05);西北农林科技大学博士科研启动基金项目(01140504);西北农林科技大学科研专项(08080230)

摘　　要：【目的】研究青海省1961-2006年气温的时空变化特征。【方法】选取1961-2006年青海省40个气象站点的逐日最高和最低气温资料,利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法和ArcGIS 9.3,对青海省40个气象站平均最高气温、平均最低气温、极端最高气温和极端最低气温的时间变化趋势、突变年份和气温倾向率的空间分布进行分析。【结果】从时间尺度上看,除河南、清水河和沱沱河外,青海省其他地区气温均呈显著上升趋势。青海省平均最高气温和极端最高气温突变年份分别为1995年和1994年,平均最低气温和极端最低气温没有突变发生。突变气象站点统计结果表明,平均最高气温和极端最高、最低气温在20世纪90年代发生突变的概率最大,而平均最低气温在2000年以后发生突变的可能性较大。从空间尺度上看,平均最高气温和极端最高气温的上升趋势没有明显的区域划分,而平均最低气温和极端最低气温则在东南-西北方向上呈递增趋势,存在明显的地区差异。【结论】全球变暖和地貌类型差异等因素是造成青海省气温时空显著变化并具有明显区域性特征的可能成因。【Objective】 This research focused on the temporal-spatial variations of temperature during 1961-2006 in Qinghai Province.【Method】 The temporal-spatial variations,mutation years and the climate trendencies of mean,maximum and minimum temperatures,extreme maximum,and minimum temperatures of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2006 were obtained from observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures at 40 stations by Mann-Kendall and ArcGIS 9.3.【Result】 The temperatures of Qinghai Province showed significant temporal increase except Henan,Qilian and Tuotuohe stations.The mutation years of the mean and extreme maximum temperatures were in year 1994 and 1995,and there was no mutation for the mean and extreme minimum temperatures.Statistics analyses of mutation indicated the mean,extreme maximum and minimum temperatures had the highest mutation probability during the 1990s,while the mean minimum temperatures had a high mutation probability after 2000.There was no clear differnce of the warming trend of the mean and extreme maximum temperatures spatially.However,the mean and extreme minimum temperatures increasing from southeast to northwest showed significant regional differences.【Conclusion】 Global warming and different physiognomy types might be responsible for climate change and its obvious regional differences in Qinghai Province.

关 键 词：青海省 气温时空变化 MANN-KENDALL检验 气温倾向率 ARCGIS 9 3 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]