围海工程堵口水力计算中设计潮型的风险分析方法  

Method of Design Tidal Type in the Process of Cofferdam Blocking-off Based on Risk Analysis

作　　者：杨星 李朝方 吴苏舒 李志清 刘志龙 

机构地区：[1]江苏省水利科学研究院,江苏南京210017 [2]深圳市水务规划设计院,广东深圳518001

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第6期121-125,共5页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：水利部公益性基金资助项目(201001070);深圳市水务发展中长期战略研究基金资助项目(SZCG2010021725)

摘　　要：围海工程堵口施工所遇到的水力条件复杂,是围海工程面临的主要技术问题。为了保证堵口合龙的成功,必须掌握堵口过程中龙口水力要素的变化规律。但是堵口工程水力计算存在设计潮型计算方法单一、设计潮型标准不统一的问题,为此,本文提出堵口期设计潮型的风险分析方法,并以深圳市赤湾站为例,计算分析了赤湾站不同重现期下的堵口期设计潮型。研究表明:①赤湾站现行典型潮型同倍比放大方法计算的堵口期设计潮型存在风险设计不足的问题;②赤湾站不同重现期下堵口期设计潮位一般差异不大,可统一取20年一遇的设计标准;③风险分析方法具有科学合理性,对围海工程堵口期设计潮型的确定具有指导意义。Severe hydraulic conditions which are the key technique problems in reclamation engineering often occur in the process of cofferdam blocking-off. In order to ensure successful implementation of blocking-off, it is necessary to know the hydraulic characteristics. The current methods of design tidal type have many problems which are single and lack of uniform standard. So, a method based on risk analysis was proposed. As an example in Chiwan sea area, the design tidal type with different recurrence periods for the blocking-off period were performed . The main achievements are summarized as follows： ① The results show that there is risk problem for the current method of amplifying the measured tidal level process curve by the same multiple to the design tidal level in Chiwan sea area; ② Differences in the design tidal type with different recurrence periods for the blocking-off period are small in Chiwan sea area, so, the uniform design standards （5 % frequency） can be conformed; ③ The new method is reasonable and will provide reference for the computation of design tidal type in the process of cofferdam blocking-off.

关 键 词：围海工程 堵口 水力计算 设计潮型 风险分析 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]