意大利主权债务危机影响因素的实证检验  

Empirical Test on Influence Factors of Italian Sovereign Debt Crisis

作　　者：孙丽[1] 林若勋[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学金融与统计学院/国际金融与风险管理研究中心,上海200241

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2012年第6期116-124,152,共9页Journal of East China Normal University（Humanities and Social Sciences）

摘　　要：2010年春希腊突然爆发的主权债务危机使尚未从全球金融危机中恢复的欧元区再次陷入困境并持续至今,并使占欧盟GDP更大比重的国家纷纷卷入其中,因此,凸显了进一步探讨欧洲主权债务危机影响因素的重要性。通过选取意大利年度和季度宏观经济指标数据进行的实证结果表明:财政支出、利率和经济景气指数对长期债务总量有正向的影响,而汇率、长期国债收益率和经常账户余额则有反向的影响;同时,财政支出和汇率经过多期的传导对债务的冲击尤为明显。基于上述分析结果,欧洲政府管理当局应该从重要变量的传导机制入手,进行结构性改革,这样才能从根本上解决危机。In the spring of 2010, Greek sovereign debt crisis suddenly broke out, which caused the Eurozone that had not recovered from the global financial crisis to get into predicament that lasts till now. More and more countries which have larger shares of the GDP in the EU have been involved. This shows that it is important to study further on the factors that influence the European sovereign debt crisis. The empirical analysis based on selected Italian annual and quarterly macroeconomic indicators shows that public finance expenditure, interest rates and macroeconomic climate index have positive impact on the long-term debt. However, the exchange rate, long-term national debt yield and current account balance have negative impact. Moreover, public finance expenditure and exchange rate bring prominent impact on the scale of public debt through transmission in several periods. The European governmental authorities should carry out the structural reform starting from the transmission mechanism of the important variables so as to eventually get out of the crises.

关 键 词：意大利 主权债务危机 影响因素 实证检验 

分 类 号：F815.46[经济管理—财政学] F224