中国与欧洲双边纺织品贸易成本测度及其影响因素分析  

A Study on Measuring the China-EU Bilateral Textile Trade Cost and Analysing Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：陈继勇[1] 周琪[1] 姚博明[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《经济管理》2012年第12期1-9,共9页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目"后金融危机时代中国参与全球经济再平衡的战略与路径研究"(11&ZD008)

摘　　要：在中欧双边纺织品贸易摩擦频频发生背景下,合理测度纺织品贸易成本和分析其影响因素有助于了解和比较中欧双边纺织品贸易发展绩效,为全面评价中国与欧盟各纺织品贸易伙伴国关系提供直接证据。借助于Novy改进引力模型,本文测度了中欧双边纺织品贸易1995～2009年间贸易成本变化情况。结果表明,中国与欧盟整体纺织品贸易成本呈下降趋势,但是,2001年前后降幅有很大不同。同时,中国与欧盟不同成员国间的双边纺织品贸易成本差异非常大。而诸如中欧双边汇率波动程度、贸易开放程度、经济发展差异和地理因素对双边纺织品贸易成本均有显著影响,但各指标的正负效应并不尽相同。为此,提升中国纺织产品竞争力和合理规避欧盟新的贸易壁垒,有利于进一步削减双边纺织品贸易成本。China and the most of the European Union countries are traditionally famous for the textile industry in the world. In the past few years, textile trade has become an important part of the bilateral economy and trade communion, and the trade volume of nearly $ 50 billion in 2011. Nowadays, China is the first big supplier in im- porting textiles to EU, and the second large market in receiving raw textile materials exported from the countries of EU. Although global trade liberalization trend has advanced rapidly recently, the China-EU bilateral textile trade frictions occur frequently. Based on the consideration that the cost of international trade is inescapable because of its widely present, this paper holds the viewpoint that reasonable measurement of the bilateral texitile trade cost and analysis of the factors affecting it is conducive to understanding and comparing the performance of the China-EU bi- lateral textile trade development. Meanwhile, to do so could also prodvide direct evidence for a comprehensive eval- uation of the relations between China and the EU textile trade partners. With direct use of the China-EU textile output and trade flows data, we try to solve the two problems about the China-EU bilateral textile trade in this paper. One is to measure the changes in trade cost of the China-EU bilateral textile trade from 1995 to 2009 with Novy＇s revised gravity model. Simultaneously, the other is to analyse the factors affecting the cost. On the one hand, the gravity model is one of the most important achievements of empirical analy- sis of international trade flows. However, the traditional gravity model can not accurately measure the cost of inter- national trade because of its many defects, such as missing variables, comparative static analysis hardly carried out and so on. On the other hand, consideration of geographic and economic factors, We use panel data model to anal- ysis the factors affecting the cost. Some variables such as the degree of exchange rate fluctuations, the degree of open

关 键 词：中欧双边纺织品贸易 引力模型 贸易成本 贸易摩擦 距离 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]