河南省入境旅游流预测模型构建研究  

Study on the Establishment of Inbound Tourism Flow Forecast Models in Henan Province

作　　者：赵俊远[1] 高詹玉[2] 吴新静[1] 李肖利[1] 

机构地区：[1]信阳师范学院华锐学院,河南信阳464000 [2]广西师范大学历史文化与旅游学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《旅游世界（旅游发展研究）》2012年第5期24-31,共8页

摘　　要：入境旅游流预测是入境旅游产业研究的基础，如何对入境旅游流进行科学有效的预测是入境旅游产业可持续发展的核心。本文采用定量分析的方法，对河南省1985～2011年入境旅游流的变化进行了实证研究，通过构建两种不同类型的入境旅游流预测模型，对未来三年河南省入境旅游流的发展规模进行了预测和分析。研究结果表明：本研究构建的两个旅游流预测模型均有较高的精度和较好的适应性，采用该模型能够科学有效地预测未来河南省入境旅游流量，探讨其在时间序列上的演变规律，为入境旅游客源的开拓提供科学的依据。The inbound tourism flow forecast is the foundation of inbound tourism industry research, how to conduct scientific and effective prediction for inbound tourism flow is the core of sustainable development of tourism industry. This article using quantitative analysis methods, to empirical research for the inbound tourism flow changes in Henan Province at 1985 to 2011, though building two different types of inbound tourism flow forecasting model, to predict and analyze the scale of development for the inbound tourism flow in Henan Province in the coming three years. The results show that： this study of conducting for two prediction models of tourist flows are higher accuracy and better adaptability, this model can be used to predict future scientific and effective entry tourism flow in Henan Province, to explore the time series of evolution, for entry tourist development to provide the scientific basis.

关 键 词：入境旅游流 预测 模型 河南 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]