基于空间自回归模型的中部经济增长分析  

Analysis of Central China's Economic Growth Based on Spatial Autoregressive Models

作　　者：李春红[1] 张可娟[1] 文利霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学数学与信息科学学院,南宁530004

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第11期22-26,共5页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(11061002);广西自然科学基金资助项目(2012GXNSBA053010)

摘　　要：为了揭示区域经济发展与其影响因素间的作用关系,为制定区域经济发展政策提供参考,以中部6省经济数据为例,采用普通回归模型和空间自回归模型分析和比较人均GDP增长率及其影响因素的相关关系.结果表明:数据空间自回归模型的拟合度较普通回归模型好,说明空间自回归模型能够更好地解释人均GDP增长率与其影响因素间的相关关系,其中比较显著的影响因素有人口密度、固定资产投资总额和第三产业生产总值.In order to effectively reveal the effect of influencing factors on regional economic growth and to provide a scientific basis for policy-making in the development of regional economy, the ordinary regres- sion model and the spatial autoregression model are compared in an analysis of the relationship between per-capita GDP growth rate and its influencing factors of central China. The results show that the spatial autoregression model has a better goodness of fit than the ordinary regression model, in other words, the spatial autoregression model is better to explain the relationship between per-capita GDP growth rate and its influencing factors. The significant influencing factors include population density, total fixed asset in- vestment and GDP of the tertiary industry.

关 键 词：空间相关 空间自回归 中部地区经济增长 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]