社会保险与养老方式选择:参保是否会影响农民养老方式?  

Social Insurance and Options of Old-age Support: Whether Participating in the Social Insurance Will Affect the Farmers’ Old-age Support

作　　者：栾文敬[1] 郭牧琦[1] 孙欢[1] 路红红[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学人文与社会科学学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《西北人口》2012年第6期55-60,66,共7页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：(青年项目)国家社会科学基金项目(11CGL072);(面上项目)华北电力大学"中央高校基金科研业务专项资金资助"(12MS128);(青年项目)华北电力大学"中央高校基金科研业务专项资金资助"(12QN34);2011年保定市哲学社会科学规划研究项目课题(201102905);河北省人力资源和社会保障课题(JRS-2012-2029)部分成果

摘　　要：农民参加社会保险对养老方式选择的影响,特别是对机构养老、居家养老、家庭养老三种养老方式选择的具体影响,一直为学术界所关注。基于调研数据,充分考虑回归模型内生性问题,通过工具变量二元Probit回归方法,得到参加社会保险对农村老年人养老方式选择的无偏影响。结果显示,参加社会保险会对老年人的养老方式选择产生显著影响,参加社保的农村老年人选择家庭养老的可能性会下降,选择非家庭养老方式,如机构养老、居家养老的可能性会显著提升。在研究结论基础上,提出了加强农村养老服务体系建设等政策建议。The effect of participating in social insurance on the options of old-age support,especially on the institutional endow- ment, home care or family endowment ,has always been the focus of academic circle. Based on survey data,and fully considering of endogeneity,it has analyzed the effect of participating in the social insurance on the aging care options, by Binary Probit Re- gression. The results show that participating in social insurance has a significant impact on the old-age support options. The el- derly who have social insurance are more likely to choose institutional endowment and home care ,rather than family endowment. On the basis of research conclusion ,putting forward some policy suggestions ,such as strengthening the aging care system etc.

关 键 词：社会保险 养老方式选择 农村老年人 工具变量二元Probit 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]