D-S证据理论在原油码头安全评价中的应用  

Application of D-S Evidence Theory in Crude Oil Terminal Safety Assessment

作　　者：耿安杰 邓宗竹[2] 纪文静 刘进利 宫宁宁 

机构地区：[1]陕西省天然气股份有限公司,陕西咸阳710016 [2]西部钻探工程有限公司,陕西榆林719000 [3]北京兴油工程项目管理有限公司河北省分公司,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《当代化工》2012年第11期1226-1228,共3页Contemporary Chemical Industry

摘　　要：原油码头安全状况是一个涉及很多因素和多层次结构的非线性系统。针对原油码头安全评价中存在的不确定性问题,为此提出运用D-S证据理论对原油码头进行安全状况分析。通过分析影响原油码头安全的因素,建立了原油码头安全评价指标体系和证据理论模型。实例表明,用D-S证据理论对原油码头进行安全评价是有效的、可靠的。The crude oil terminal safety is a non-linear systen, that refers to many factors and multilayer structure. In this paper, to solve the problem of uncertainty in crude oil terminal safety assessment, D-S evidence theory was used to carry out the safety assessment of crude oil terminal. The safety evaluation index system of crude oil terminal and a model based evidence theory were established through analyzing various safety factors. Application examples show that the D-S evidence theory for crude oil terminal safety assessment is effective and reliable.

关 键 词：原油码头 安全评价 D—S证据理论 可信度 

分 类 号：TE624[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程]