基于灰色系统理论的区域旅游人才预测研究  

Study on regional tourism talents prediction based on grey system theory

作　　者：苏林宁[1] 张光英[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁德师范学院旅游系,福建宁德352100

出　　处：《宁德师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2012年第4期342-347,共6页Journal of Ningde Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：福建省科技厅软科学项目(2012R0067)

摘　　要：区域旅游人才预测对于区域旅游经济的长远发展有着重要的作用,关系到旅游产业布局,旅游产业结构调整等一系列问题.运用灰色系统理论对环三都澳区域导游人才的供需现状及未来发展趋势进行研究,通过建立区域导游人才供需预测GM(1,1)模型,对环三都澳区域导游人才供需进行预测.实例分析结果表明,从预测精确程度、合理性和实用性等方面来看,GM(1,1)预测模型都适合于区域旅游人才预测研究.The prediction of the regional travel talent plays an important role in the long-term development of regional tourism economy, which is closely related to the layout of the tourism industry, the structure adjustment and a series of questions. The grey system theory should be applied on the research of the guide talent supply and the demand status in the Huansanduao region and the development trend. Through regional tour talent supply and demand prediction GM （1,1） model in the forecasting of the tour talents, and the central supply and demand in the Huansanduao area, the analysis showed that from forecast accuracy, legitimacy and relevance perspective, GM （1,1） in prediction models are suitable for prediction of regional tourism talents.

关 键 词：环三都澳区域 导游人才 供需预测 灰色系统理论GM(1 1)预测模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]