复杂河道实时洪水预报的半自适应模型研究  

A semi-adaptive updating model for complicated channel flood routing and forecasting

作　　者：李致家[1] 韩从尚[2] 朱先武 纪冰[3] 朱兆成[3] 汪中华 

机构地区：[1]河海大学,江苏南京210024 [2]安徽省水文总局,安徽合肥230022 [3]安徽省防汛抗旱办公室,安徽合肥230022 [4]山东省济宁市水文局,山东济宁272119

出　　处：《水力发电》2000年第7期15-17,50,共4页Water Power

摘　　要：具有行蓄洪区的复杂河道的洪水演算是洪水预报中的一个难点。对于复杂河道如何在水文学方法中考虑分洪、蓄洪并提高实时洪水预报的精度是一个重要的问题。为了解决这一难题 ,在提出基于马斯京根流量演算河道洪水实时预报的半自适应滤波模型的基础上 ,对该模型在具有行蓄洪区的复杂河道中的应用问题进行了深入的研究 ,提出行蓄洪区的计算与预报方法 ,使得半自适应滤波模型可以用于复杂河道行蓄洪的调度和实时洪水预报。The flood routing of complicated channels in the flood retarding and discharging area is a difficult work in flood forecast How to retard and discharge the flood in complicated channels and how to enhance the real time flood forecast accuracy are the important subjects In order to solve such problems, we have deeply studied, on the basis of semi adaptive filtering model of real time flood forecast by the Muskingum method, the application of such model in complicated channels in flood retarding and discharging area Meanwhile, this paper puts forward the calculation and forecast method of flood retarding and discharging area so that the semi adaptive filtering model can be used in the flood dispatching and the real time flood forecasting in complicated channel

关 键 词：洪水预报模型 半自适应滤波 马斯京根法 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]