汇率冲击与贸易部门和非贸易部门的均衡发展  

Real Appreciation and Balanced Development of the Trade and Non-trade Sector

作　　者：何暑子[1] 范从来[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2012年第12期65-73,共9页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"基于自主创新能力增进的产学研合作创新研究"(项目批准号:10zd&020);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目"江苏创新型经济发展战略;思路;模式;路径与政策研究"(项目批准号:2010ZDAXM007);南京大学人文社会科学"985工程"改革型项目"提升自主创新能力问题研究"(项目批准号:NJU985FW01)基金资助

摘　　要：本文从贸易部门与非贸易部门非均衡发展的角度探讨汇率冲击对经济的影响,为广场协议后本币升值对日本经济冲击大于德国这一现象提供了新的解读。文章借助内生技术进步理论,构建了包含贸易部门与非贸易部门的一般均衡模型,分析发现,在存在低技术非贸易部门的情况下,本币升值将导致技术进步和经济增长速度下降。使用1981-2010年间日本、德国、中国的时间序列数据进行格兰杰因果检验和VAR分析,结果表明,两部门发展较为均衡的德国经济不受汇率升值影响;而非均衡发展的日本和我国经济增长率均受到了升值的不利冲击。由此建议,在我国汇率制度改革过程中应当避免人民币短期大幅升值;更重要的是,提高我国非贸易部门的发展水平和技术含量,进一步改革完善市场机制有助于缓解升值的不利影响。Real appreciation after the Plaza Accord has affected Japan＇s economy more seriously than it has done to Germany＇s economy. This article provides an explanation to this phenomenon through the unbalanced development between the trade sector and non-trade sector. A general equilibrium model is constructed and it is found that： due to the presence of a low-skill non-trade sector, the appreciation will lead to the slowdown of technological progress and economic growth. If the low skilled non-tradable sector is able to absorb more human capital, the adverse impact is particularly significant. Empirical analysis is carried out using the time series of real per capita GDP growth and real effective exchange rate of Japan, Germany and China from 1981 to 2010. It proves that Germany＇s economy was free from the impact of appreciation, because of its balanced economic structure; Japan＇s economy experienced large fluctuations; while China＇s fluctuation was relatively moderate yet persisted longer.

关 键 词：汇率 贸易部门 非贸易部门 经济增长 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]