全球气候趋暖灾害骤增与农业持续生产力维护  

Global climate warming, disasters increasing and agricultural productivity safeguarding

作　　者：江爱良[1] 于沪宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《生态农业研究》2000年第2期10-14,共5页Chinese Journal of Eco-agriculture

摘　　要：根据1880～1997年全球大气温度的记录,进行了每10年平均气温的计算,可将这近120年来全球气温明显划分为3个时期,即气温偏低期(1880～1919年,至少40年),过渡期(气温变化起伏较小,1920～1979年,约60年)和升温期(1980～1997年)。再参照有关小冰期(1450年或1490年开始至1850年或1880年止,约400年)的文献资料,可知小冰期气温比1880～1919年时期更低,因此推想气温偏低期持续了约450年,即近450年全球大气温度的变化大体上是一个单向渐变过程。20世纪厄尔尼诺的出现,也可划分为3个明显不同时期:从1900年有记录开始至1940年为厄尔尼诺偶见期,在此时期全球气候尚未变暖;1940～1980年为厄尔尼诺中等发生期,全球气候出现微弱或中等程度的升温;1980～1998年为厄尔尼诺频繁出现期,此时全球气候明显升温,由此表明近100年来厄尔尼诺出现的情况类似上述全球大气升温的单向渐变过程。研究中考虑到海洋的热惯性,提出应关注温室效应和厄尔尼诺叠加效应的新观点,认为今后几十年或更长时间内厄尔尼诺仍将频繁出现,全球气温将保持偏暖状态。与此伴生的是洪涝、干旱、生物灾害等各类自然灾害的加剧频繁出现,对此应高度重视并采取必要措施,做好防灾减灾工作,维护农业持续生产力及其发展。Three periods were clearly divided based on decadal mean temperatures of global surface temperatures in recent 120 years(from 1880 to 1997). The first one was the period of lower tem-perature(from 1880 to 1919,at least 40 years),the second one was the period of transition (fluctu-ation of temperature was not too big,from 1920 to 1979,about 60 years) ,the third one was the pe-riod of temperature increasing.We understand the temperature of the Little Ice Age was lower than that of the period from 1880 to 1919 according to the references of the Little Ice Age(from 1450 or 1490 to 1850 or 1880,about 400 years ). Therefore we imagined the duration of lower temperature is about 450 years. The variations of temperature for the recent 450 years are the kind of the process of unidirectional,gradual change. Another three periods may be also divided accord-ing to the situation of El Nino emerging in 20st century. The first period was that of El Nino ac-cidental emerging from 1900 to 1940. The second period was that of El Nino middle emerging from 1940 to 1980,the global temperature was increasing at faint or middle level for this period. The third period is that of frequently emerging of El Nino from 1980 to 1998,the global warming is ob-viously. In recent 100 years, the situation of El Nino emerging is similar with the process of uni- directional,gradual change for global temperature. The new viewpoint,that is to pay close atten-tion to the influences on the piled effects of greenhouse effect and El Nino,is given out after the thermal inertia of ocean being considered. We think the El Nino will be frequently emerged and global temperature will be also kept warmer for several decades or longer period in the future. The natural disasters, such as flood,drought, bio-calamities etc.,will be frequently took place follow-ing El Nino and global warming. Therefore,we should do the works for taking precautions against and reducing natural calamities,and safeguard the sustainable agriculture productivity.

关 键 词：全球变暖 厄尔尼诺 自然灾害防御 农业 生产力 

分 类 号：P731.11[天文地球—海洋科学] S42[农业科学—植物保护]