二元经济转型背景下的货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀  

Money supply,economic growth and inflation in dual economy in transition

作　　者：冯涛[1] 高东胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《经济学家》2012年第12期85-94,共10页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(08BJL023):资产价格波动对居民财产性收入分配的影响研究;国家社会科学基金项目(10XJY0014):农民工进城的体制与政策研究--"半城市化"现象与地方政府行为

摘　　要：本文研究发现,在二元经济条件下,货币供给对非农就业增加具有持续的正向影响效应,而非农就业的增长通过供求效应对通胀产生双向影响,这导致货币、通胀的简单对应关系在转型经济条件下难以有效成立,货币扩张并不必然导致通胀,而收紧货币抑制通胀的传导效率较低,并会抑制结构转型和经济增长的速度。换言之,货币政策尽管属于短期政策工具,然而转型期的货币供给却具有长期结构效应,针对短期的失衡有利于长期结构调整,而短期内有效的政策加剧了长期结构失衡这一困局,货币政策需要和长期结构转型政策建立内在的联系。We find that under the condition of dual economy, money supply has consistent positive impact on non - agricul- tural employment, while that the growth of non - agricultural employment have a two - way influence on inflation through supply - demand effects, which makes it difficult for the simple correspondence relationship between money and inflation to effectively stand in economic transition. Money expansion does not necessarily lead to inflation. However, the low transmission efficiency of tight- ening money and curbing inflation would refrain structural transition and the pace of economic growth. In other words, although monetary policy belongs to short- term policy tools, money supply in the transition period has long- term structural effects. Short- tem disequilibrium benefits long- term structural adjustments. But short- term effective policy exacerbates long- term structural disequilibrium. Monetary policy needs to set up internal contact with long- term structural transition policy.

关 键 词：二元经济转型 货币供给 经济增长 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]