基于模糊综合评价的城市配气站场事故模式预测研究  

Study on accident models prediction of urban gas distribution station based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

作　　者：姚安林[1] 宋祎昕[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学石油工程学院,成都610500 [2]西南石油大学土木工程与建筑学院,成都610500

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2012年第11期118-123,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(编号:2011BAK06B01-11)

摘　　要：城市配气站场的事故模式具有多样性,合理预测其事故模式有助于正确评价城市配气站场事故的损失后果。基于模糊分析原理,通过合理划分城市配气站场的风险区块,建立各风险区块事故影响因素的评价集,利用层次分析法构造评价因素的评判矩阵、确定评价因素的权重系数,利用模糊综合评价运算对城市配气站场的事故模式进行预测研究。然后通过实际案例验证了所建预测模型的合理性和实用性。本研究为城市配气站场事故模式的预测提供了一种新的方法。With the diversity of accident models of urban gas station, it helps to correctly evaluate the accident con- sequences loss of the urban gas station with its reasonable prediction. Based on the fuzzy analysis theory, with the risk blocks of the urban gas station were rationally divided, the evaluation sets of the accident risk factors of every block were established. AHP was applied to construct the evaluation matrix of evaluation factors to determine the weights of evaluating factors coefficient. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematical operation was conducted on predictive study for the accident mode of the urban gas distribution station. Then a real ease was presented to verify the rationality and practicability of the established prediction model. This study provides a new approach for the accident prediction model of urban gas distribution station.

关 键 词：城市配气站场 事故模式 预测 模糊综合评价 层次分析法 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]