基于DFA的长江上游径流演化标度特性研究  

DFA based study on scaling property of runoff evolvement of Upper Yangtze River

作　　者：丁志宏[1,2] 谢国权[3] 李恩宽[4] 

机构地区：[1]天津市中水科技咨询有限责任公司,天津300170 [2]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [3]二滩水电开发有限责任公司,四川成都610021 [4]黄河水利科学研究院水资源研究所,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2012年第11期1-3,共3页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金(51021004);国家自然科学基金(50879051);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201101016)

摘　　要：针对河川径流时序所具有的非线性与非平稳性特征,运用消除趋势波动分析法(Detrended Fluctuation Analysis,DFA)对长江上游控制性水文站—宜昌站1878～2001年的月均流量时序的演化特征进行了研究,以揭示该流域河川径流的长程相关性及其内在规律性。结果表明:长江上游河川径流时序波动具有长程相关性,且其标度指数具有显著的区域性,即在短时间尺度上具有强烈的正持续性,在长时间尺度上具有强烈的负持续性,且其正持续性至多可持续19个月,显示了长江上游流域产汇流系统演化具有复杂的物理机制。In accordance with the non-linear and non-steady features of the river runoff time series, the evolvement characteristics of the time series of the monthly average flow rates from 1878 to 2001 of Yichang Hydrological Station a control station on the Upper Yangtze River is studied herein based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis（DFA） , so as to reveal the long-range corre- lation of the fiver runoff within the river basin and its inherent law. The result shows that the fluctuation of the river runoff time se- ries of the Upper Yangtze River has a long-range correlation and its scaling index has obvious regionality, i. e. a strong positive durative is on a short time scale there, while a strong negative durative is there on a long time scale, moreover, the positive can only continue for 19 months at the longest; which shows a complicated physical mechanism of the evolvement of the runoff and convergence system within the basin of the Upper Yangtze River.

关 键 词：长江上游 宜昌 径流 长程相关性 DFA 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]