中国入境旅游业对危机事件响应的区域差异研究  

Analysis of Regional Differences in Response to Crisis Events of China's Inbound Tourism

作　　者：张玉玲[1] 张捷[1] 马金海[1] 孙景荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学国土资源与旅游系,中国江苏南京210093

出　　处：《经济地理》2012年第11期149-155,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171121;41001070)

摘　　要：危机事件给入境旅游业带来负面影响,准确分析各种危机事件对我国不同区域的影响差异具有现实意义。通过时间序列法和变异系数进行分析,结果表明,在区域灾害高发期或者灾害发生年,特定时段入境旅游流占区域全年比例往往低于同期全国相应水平,对生命安全造成威胁、引起交通中断的灾害对区域入境旅游流影响较严重。我国东部地区入境旅游业对危机事件反应较为缓和,抗御危机事件能力较强且恢复速度快;西北部干旱地区以及西藏、海南入境旅游业对危机事件反应较为敏感,抗御危机事件能力较弱且恢复速度慢。北京、上海入境旅游业一直走在全国前列,但是易受危机事件干扰。政治与疾病事件对入境旅游业与国内旅游业均造成严重打击,同时多种危机事件叠加也会对入境旅游业造成较大影响,与国内旅游业相比入境旅游业对危机事件反应更为敏感。Crisis events occur frequently in last 30 years, and have brought series of negative effects on China＇s inbound tourism. So, it has a practical sinificance to analyze the regional differences of crisis events impacting. Time series method and coefficient of variation calculation are the main research methods in this research. Annual propotion of regional inbound tourist flows during high probability period of the regional climate disaster or disaster occurred year which are often lower than corresponding national average, whereas the disasters which threating life safety strongly or blocking traffic have a serious impacting on inbound tourism. The inbound tourism is more nonsensitive to the crisis events what the ability to resist crisis events is stronger in the east region, also it＇s faster to recover after crisis events. Meanwhile, the inbound tourism is more sensitive to the crisis events what the ability to resist crisis events is weaker in the northwest arid area, Tibet Autonomous Region, and Hainan province, also it＇s slower to recover after crisis events.Meanwhile, the inbound tourism is more sensitive to the crisis events what the ability to resist crisis events is weaker in the northwest arid area, Tibet Autonomous Region, and Hainan province, also it＇s slower to recover after crisis events.Meanwhile, the inbound tourism is more sensitive to the crisis events what the ability to resist crisis events is weaker in the northwest arid area, Tibet Autonomous Region, and Hainan province, also it＇s slower to recover after crisis events.The inbound tourism of Beijing and Shanghai in the leading position in the country , but it disturbed by crises events vulnerably. Both inbound tourism and domestic tourism are strucked by political events and disease, meanwhile, variety of crisis occured at the same time have impacted inbound tourism seriously. It＇s clearly that inbound tourism is more sensitive to crisis events compared with domestic tourism.

关 键 词：入境旅游业 危机事件 极端天气和气候事件 低谷期 变异系数 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]