基于改进生产函数模型的工业技术进步贡献率的实证研究——以北京工业为例  

Empirical Research on Industry Technology Progress Contribution Rate in Beijing Based on Modified Production Function

作　　者：齐园[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100041 [2]北京工业大学经济管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2012年第24期78-83,108,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：北京市委组织部优秀人才项目"北京高技术产业全要素生产率及技术进步贡献率的测算与分析"(2009D005002000007)

摘　　要：规模报酬不变的假设使传统的C-D生产函数在对中国工业的经济增长分析中失效,以北京工业为例,选取1996-2009年数据,基于改进的生产函数,建立了测量各要素贡献率的最优模型,并实证分析北京工业的经济增长源泉,结果显示技术进步是促进其经济增长的主要因素,平均贡献率为50.51%,且以2002年为中心呈对称分布,其中"九五"时期的均值为最高,2002-2004年间波动幅度高达1000%,剔除其中波动较大的年份,北京工业的技术贡献率总体保持在30%-40%之间。Traditional Cobb - douglas production function has not been directly applied to economic growth analysis of Chi- nese industry because of the assumption of constant returns to scale. According to the data from 1996 to 2009 of Beijing industry, using the modified production function model, the optimal model of measuring various factors contribution rate is established. With the model, sources of economic growth in Beijing industry are studied. The results show as follows： its technological progress contribution rate is better than other factors＇ contribution rate; the average is 50. 51 percent, crested in the ＂9th Five year＂ period; the trend is symmetrical distribution in 2002 as the center; from 2000 to 2004, the fluctuation range is elevated as high as 1000 percent; the remaining average maintains on the range of 30 percent to 40 percent after clearing data of these higher fluctuation years.

关 键 词：技术进步 贡献率 C—D生产函数 北京工业 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F427F273.1