基于投入产出模型的煤价变动对国民经济影响分析  

Analysis on Coal Price Variation Affected to National Economy Based on Input and Output Model

作　　者：王伟[1] 董德彪[2] 赵联振 徐超[4] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学资源与环境工程学院,山东青岛266590 [2]中国煤炭科工集团有限公司,北京100013 [3]山东能源枣庄矿业(集团)有限责任公司,山东枣庄277600 [4]山东财经大学,山东济南250014

出　　处：《煤炭科学技术》2012年第12期125-128,共4页Coal Science and Technology

摘　　要：基于煤炭产业作为我国基础性产业,与国民经济的发展有着很强的关联性,为分析煤价变动对各产业各部门的影响,根据《2007年中国投入产出表》运用投入产出模型,测算了国民经济各部门对煤炭的直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数。分析结果表明:耗煤量前10位的部门大部分是工业部门,煤价变动对电力、热力的生产和供应部门影响最大,若煤价上涨10%,该部门产品价格会相应上涨1.79%。Due to the coal industry as the base industry with a close relevance to the development of the national economy, in order to analyze the reaction of the coal price variation to each industrial sector, the input and output model was applied to estimate the coal direct consumption coefficient and completed consumption coefficient to each department of the national economy based on China input and out- put table of 2007. The analysis results showed that the top 10 departments of coal consumption were the industrial departments generally, the coal price variation would have high influences to the electric power industry and the thermal production and supply industry. When the coal price was increased by 10%, the product price of the departments would be increased by 1.79% relatively.

关 键 词：煤炭价格 投入产出模型 经济影响分析 煤电 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]