2020年CO_2减排强度对中国成本效益的影响  

Influence of CO_2 exhaustion-reduction intensity in 2020 on cost-benefit in China

作　　者：郑有飞[1,2] 朱晶晶[2] 吴荣军[1,3] 李海涛[4] 尹继福[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气物理和环境学院,江苏南京210044 [3]南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏南京210044 [4]山西省气候中心,山西太原030006

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第6期1-8,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2010-13)

摘　　要：在2009年哥本哈根举行的气候变化大会上,中国提出到2020年,CO2的排放强度在2005年的基础上要削减40%～45%。为分析"哥本哈根减排"对中国经济的影响,利用国外较为成熟的动态气候经济区域综合评估模式(RICE),设置了我国2005-2050年的6种碳排放情景,且以成本-效益为主开展了该系列情景下的经济评估。结果表明:到2050年,碳强度分别减排30%～35%,40%～45%和50%～55%情景的成本效益比分别为0.28～0.48,0.13～0.18和0.07～0.1。我国CO2减排表现出高成本低效益,且是以我国经济增长的减缓和人民生活水平的降低为代价实现的。In 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, China proposed to reduce Carbon emission by 40% 45% up to 2020 in comparison with that in 2005. To analyze the influence of ＂Copenhagen emission reduction＂ on future economy in China, a dynamic regional integrated model of climate and economy （RICE） , which is well known and widely accepted, was used to comprehensively assess the impactof carbon emission on the economy, i. e. , the cost-benefit effects, based on six supposed scenarios in 2005-2050 in China. Results indicated that cost- benefit ratios for 30% -35% , 40% -45% and 50% -55% emission reduction scenarios by 2050 would he 0.28 -0.48, 0.13 -0.18 and 0.07 -0.1, respectively. Chinese CO2 emissions reduction will exhibit a characteristic of ＂high cost and low income＂, and will be achieved at the expense of domestic economic growth and peopleg liv- ing standard.

关 键 词：CO2减排 中国 成本 效益 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]