生命线系统地震灾害损失评估方法研究  

Study on loss assessment methodology for lifeline system under earthquake disaster

作　　者：刘金龙[1] 林均岐[1] 陈希 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]城市建设研究院,北京100120

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第6期50-56,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：地震行业专项(201108002)

摘　　要：系统总结了生命系统地震灾害损失评估研究的发展过程,以我国1990-2006年间破坏性地震灾害损失评估数据为样本,结合国内近几年的地震震害资料,采用震害经验统计法分别给出了基于震中烈度、震级和震中烈度与震级结合为指标的3种评估方法。首先通过数理统计确定了不同烈度下生命线系统与建筑物之间的地震直接经济损失之比的算术平均值及其概率分布模型,并给出了特定超越概率下的推荐取值;其次利用最小二乘拟合法建立了生命线系统与建筑物之间的地震直接经济损失之比与震级之间的函数关系;最后通过震级的变化体现各烈度区面积的差异,对基于震中烈度的方法进行了改进。The existing methods for seismic loss evaluation of lifeline engineering were reviewed. With samples of earthquake loss assessment data of China from 1990 to 2006 and data about several representative destructive earth- quakes occurred in China in recent years, three assessment methods based on epicentral intensity, magnitude and epicentral intensity respectively combined with magnitude were derived using seismic experience statistics method. First, the arithmetic mean and its probability distribution model of the ratio of the loss of lifeline system to that of buildings under different epicentral intensities were determined by mathematical statistics method, and the recom- mend ratio was presented for a given probability of exceedance. Then the functional relationship of the ratio of di- rect seismic economic loss between lifeline system and buildings to earthquake magnitude were developed by least squares fitting method. Last, through the difference of areas with different intensities reflected by the variation of magnitude, the method based on the epicentral intensity was improved.

关 键 词：生命线系统 地震灾害损失评估 震中烈度 震级 

分 类 号：P315.94[天文地球—地震学]