基于AHP-OWA方法的洪涝灾害风险区划研究——以秦淮河中下游地区为例  

Risk zoning study of flood/waterlogging disaster based on AHP-OWA method:a case study on middle and lower reaches of Qinhuai River

作　　者：周峰[1] 许有鹏[1] 石怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第6期83-90,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(40730635);水利部公益性行业科研专项(200901042;201201072)

摘　　要：将层次分析法(AHP)和次序权重平均法(OWA)相结合,构建基于GIS的AHP-OWA洪涝灾害风险评价模型,并以秦淮河中下游地区为例,在流域风险识别的基础上,选取平均降雨量、过境洪水、地形、水系和不透水面积等因子建立了危险性评价体系,并结合人口、GDP、工农业增加值和固定资产投资易损性等指标以及防灾减灾能力因子(堤防等级、密度和圩区排涝能力)对洪涝灾害风险等级进行了区划。结果表明:AHP-OWA综合考虑了准则权重(相对重要性)和次序权重(等级重要性次序)对洪灾风险评价的影响,通过给定决策风险水平,可以获得多情景组合的评价结果,从而能更好地为区域防灾减灾提供决策参考;研究区中下游平原地带受地形和快速城市化的影响,风险明显高于低山丘陵地区;中高风险区以南京城南和沿江地带较为突出,随着江宁区城市化进程的发展,其风险呈增大的趋势。The AHP-OWA method was adopt in this study for flood risk assessment of middle and lower reaches of Qinhuai River. The method integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） and the Order Weighted Average （OWA） methods. Maps of flood hazard intensity zone, flood hazard vulnerability zone and integrated flood hazard risk zone were constructed by taking account of a number of factors, which include five natural factors of average rainfall, passing flood, topography, drainage basin and impervious surface area, four socioeconomics factors of pop- ulation density, GDP, industrial and agricultural increased value and fixed assets investment, as well as flood re- sistant capability such as levee density, grade and drainage ability. The result shows that the AHP-OWA method, which incorporates the order weights （order importance） and criterion weights （relative importance）, can generate a multi-scene risk assessment results for regional flood control decision-making. The plain region in middle and low- er reaches of the Qinhuai river has significantly higher risk than the hilly areas because of the lower terrain and rap- id urbanization, and the high risk is more prominent along rivers and in south part of Nanjing City. With the devel-opment of the urbanization in Jiangning district, the flood risk shows an increasing trend.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害风险 AHP OWA 秦淮河 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]