美国外部失衡的消费风险分担考察  

Analysis of the Consumption Risk Sharing of the United States' External Imbalances

作　　者：廖泽芳[1] 高维新[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学经济管理学院,广东湛江524018

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2012年第12期16-26,共11页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(07JA820034);广东海洋大学引进人才科研启动项目(E12246)

摘　　要：布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后,美国长期处于贸易逆差和国际资本净流入中心地位,即美国外部失衡模式。在分析国际消费风险分担机制及影响因素的基础上,探讨美国在全球经济失衡中的消费风险分担利益,并利用美国与失衡伙伴的数据进行实证分析。结果表明,美国的跨国消费风险分担程度与其外部失衡相一致:在20世纪80年代的发达国家内部失衡格局中,美国从日本、德国等其他OECD国家获得了消费风险分担的好处;起始于20世纪90年代的本轮全球经济失衡中,中国等亚太地区新兴市场和发展中国家成为美国消费风险的主要分担者。After the demise of Bretton Woods System, the United States has been in the state of large deficit and persistent net international capital inflow, which is called the external imbalance pattern of USA. Based on theories and effects of international risk sharing, the paper discusses consumption risk sharing benefits of USA during its global imbalances, and empirically analyzes the data from USA and its partners of imbalance. The results show that the extent of international consumption risk sharing of USA is consistent with its external imbalances： for instance, during the internal imbalance among developed countries in 1980s, the USA gains international consumption risk sharing from other OECD countries such as Japan and Germany; in the global imbalance starting from 1990s, the emerging market and developing countries of Asian and Pacific regions like China are the main sharers of USA＇ s consumption risk.

关 键 词：外部失衡 美国 消费风险分担 

分 类 号：F112.2[经济管理—国际贸易]