人民币汇率、出口贸易结构与中美贸易收支——基于SITC标准产业数据的实证分析  

RMB Exchange Rate,Export Trade Structure and Sino-US Balance of Payments:An Empirical Analysis Based on the SITC Standard Industry Data

作　　者：肖奎喜[1] 廖文秀[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2012年第12期60-72,共13页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：2011年教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"国际金融危机后全球需求结构变化研究"(11ZJD021);2012国家社会科学基金重点课题"中国对外贸易战略转型研究"(12AZD028)

摘　　要：近年来,人民币汇率的低估成为美国向中国施压以消除美中贸易逆差的借口。文章选取了人民币实际有效汇率、中美两国的国内收入、货币发行量及利率等变量进行实证分析,并按照SITC分类将中美贸易产品分为资源密集型、劳动密集型和资本密集型三大类,将中国对美国这三种类型产品的净出口与得到的变量主成分进行检验。实证结果表明,除了人民币汇率外,中美贸易收支差额还受中美两国的货币发行量以及汇率政策的显著影响,而且同一变量对不同类型产品的净出口影响不尽一致。人民币升值有助于缓解中美贸易收支的不平衡,但不能从根本上消除这种现象,有必要提高利用外资质量,加快贸易自由化进程。Recently, U.S. irresponsibly accuses against China＇s manipulating its currency which has led to its trade deficit, and thus puts pressure on the appreciation of RMB. This paper makes an empirical analysis by selecting variables including the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the incomes of China and America, along with the currency circulation and the interest rate. And Sino-US trade products are divided into resource-intensive, labor-intensive and capital-intensive products in accordance with the SITC classification, to test the three types of net exports of China to America and their related variables. The empirical results show that the factors which affect the Sino-US trade difference include not only the exchange rate of RMB, but also the currency circulation and the exchange rate policy, and the same variable affects the net export of different types of products differently. Therefore, it is impossible to eliminate the imbalance of Sino-US trade payments by forcing RMB to appreciate.

关 键 词：人民币实际有效汇率 中美贸易收支 SITC分类 FDI 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]